Joel's pretty freakin' smart

Despite following the well-used "history repeating itself" form of analysis, Spolsky's Strategy Letter VI makes for some good reading. Joel makes a pretty compelling analogy between what's happening w/ AJAX webapps and what happened w/ mainframes and PCs. The story ends w/ Google going the way of OS/2. Google looks pretty unstoppable right now, so it's fun to envision the conditions that would precipitate a fall from grace. Don't get me wrong, I'm not selling my Google stock, but it's an interesting mental exercise.